johnvangeem

Our new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl predictions from our new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

Share this post

Nobody can forecast the future but at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to offer it its best shot. With up to date news and a small however tough 14 Billion parameter design, our AI is boldly predicting the unforeseeable. Join us as we try to respond to humankind's most difficult questions.

Super Bowl Sunday is almost upon us and, just as 2 years earlier, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread currently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the stats are well studied, there remain lots of pressing questions that are less simple to pin down. Our business, Lightning Rod Labs, has been mining concerns from places like polymarket.com and training a large language design to be better at predicting the future (and have actually seen some intriguing improvements - term paper incoming). Today we turned its cold, calculating eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can give us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world register for my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion specification model which is really on the smaller sized side. (Some estimates suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION parameters and trained utilizing 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from many months ago so we have actually built an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we provide the news and watch as the AI reasons its way through unknown area to make its best prediction possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We postured the following concerns to our AI and evaluated its reaction. While we have seen forecast improvements from our training, utilize these estimates for prop wagering at your own hazard.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% chance

Therefore it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, but a little too personal for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta consider if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposal ...

First, I'll take a look at the crucial points from the short articles. Travis has remained in a relationship with Taylor because 2023. He's a big football star, and she's been supportive of his career, attending his video games. They seem to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has even invited her family and friends to the Super Bowl, revealing her dedication.

Some fans are delighted, while others, particularly Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly provided remarks Travis made about Donald Trump participating in the Super Bowl. That has actually triggered some Swifties to question how suitable Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple appears to be keeping their relationship personal and not resolving the speculation straight.

I think the bottom lines are the speculation and his evasive answers. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is an essential event, the odds and his reactions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low likelihood, perhaps around 5%, considering all elements.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% opportunity

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" relocation, valetinowiki.racing now its simply a different front-tush being pushed. Will an AI understand what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even understand what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's similar efforts? Appears like our AI thinks they'll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.

Alright, I'm attempting to find out the likelihood that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I require to comprehend what exactly a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it looks like it's a method where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to press off defenders. It's compared to pressing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and strategy.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts uses his leg strength, having done a 600-pound squat, to perform the move. The short article discusses that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this strategy, which is quite high. ... I likewise need to consider the protective strategies of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs understand the Eagles' "tush-push" strategy, they might adjust their defense accordingly, classifieds.ocala-news.com which could either increase or decrease the variety of times the Eagles utilize it.

Considering that more than 5 looks like a considerable number but possible offered their confidence, I would estimate a likelihood around 60-70% chance. This represents their preparation, self-confidence in the technique, and the possibility that they'll utilize it numerous times, especially if it's reliable early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime program efficiency?

AI Final Prediction: 65% chance

While our AI may not be like us when it pertains to awareness, a soul, or any physical symptom, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was pretty uncertain, waffling back and forth, however in the end it thinks Kendrick isn't going to back down from a fight.

From the posts, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of criticizing Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement throughout a previous halftime program when Trump existed in 2018. That appears considerable since it reveals he's done it previously, so possibly he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent short articles, it points out that Lamar is moving away from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That could imply he's less most likely to deal with Trump this time.

However, he's likewise included in a fight with Drake, which might give him reasons to make some public declarations, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal issues surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a disparagement match from Drake, so maybe he bewares about including any questionable songs in the performance. But given that he won the Grammys for that track, he might still wish to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent occasion, Lamar may feel obliged to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to prevent political declarations during the halftime program, so there's a risk that such material may be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making vibrant carry on big phases. He's the very first solo rap act to headline the halftime program, which might provide him more innovative flexibility. Plus, his past behavior suggests he's not shy about revealing his viewpoints, even in public performances.

But I likewise remember reading that Lamar revealed fatigue about slamming Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might indicate he's less inspired to raise Trump this time around, specifically if he's focusing on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past habits, current shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the occasion's context-the possibility seems to be reasonably high, maybe around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the super bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% possibility

Lets be honest, Andy Reid likes cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the truth that our AI has never tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its forecast? Looks like theres somewhat of a chance that if the chiefs taste triumph, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the articles, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger throughout a celebration. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't imply to trigger offense which he in fact found it amusing himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which may show he's the type to laugh it off instead of getting upset.

Looking at the articles, it mentions that Andy Reid is a food lover and enjoys cheeseburgers. There's an article particularly about his love for food, which suggests that he's an individual who takes pleasure in consuming, specifically with his team. So, if there were strategies to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would engage in a cheeseburger, specifically if the circumstance is on screen for a celebration.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% possibility

"Tails never fails?" You can't trick the makers !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have actually been predicting the coin toss and 53% are anticipating heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 incredibly bowls. Potentially lucrative? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and thinks anything can occur when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm attempting to determine the likelihood that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is expected to be 50/50, however there's some historical data that might influence this forecast.

First, I go through the posts offered. They all mention the historic data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It looks like tails has actually turned up more frequently than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has been the result 30 times, which has to do with 52%, while heads has been 28 times, which is about 48%. So, based purely on history, tails has a small edge, however it's not a substantial distinction.

However, I keep in mind that the result of a coin toss is normally considered random. The small historical edge for tails could be due to opportunity. But when making predictions, sometimes individuals weigh historic data even if it's not statistically significant. So, I should consider whether this historic bias should influence the probability.

After thinking of it, I choose that while the historic data shows a small preference for tails, it's not statistically substantial adequate to move the likelihood away from 0.5. So, I'll choose 0.5 as the probability, acknowledging that the slight historical edge exists however does not override the fact that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% possibility

We get it, you believe the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na assist him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I assure we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training information) I would most likely believe the very same. BUT, its authorities now because our AI says the chances are just 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still kind of high when it pertains to fraud on a nationwide scale). Looks like the Chiefs will need to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to find out the likelihood that the referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite major accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a great deal of short articles that discuss conspiracy theories recommending referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are pointing to some questionable calls in current video games, particularly the AFC Championship Game. That does appear to spark some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get frustrated when their group loses due to what they perceive as bad officiating.

But then I read that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "unbelievable" and "outrageous." They say there's no evidence of organized predisposition. That's a strong statement from individuals in charge. If they're rejecting it, it may imply there's no genuine basis or they would have addressed it in a different way if there was some truth to it.

Looking at the posts, numerous sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They likewise mentioned that analytical analysis doesn't reveal any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For example, Mike Pereira from FOX said data reveals the Chiefs have actually been punished more given that 2022. That's intriguing because if they were getting special treatment, you might anticipate fewer charges, right?

...

So, putting all of it together, the likelihood that referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is probably extremely low. Maybe not zero because you can't dismiss every possibility, however very not likely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth seeing the game still? I think I'll need to wait and see how the video game ends up before we unleash this upon the stock exchange. Fingers crossed for a good video game! And hello, if it ends up our AI was incorrect about everything, a minimum of it can gain from this.